钴锂行业更新：供增预期发酵，锂价承压下行

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the lithium and cobalt industry [2][3]. Core Viewpoints - The lithium sector is experiencing increased supply, leading to downward pressure on lithium prices. The willingness of manufacturers to hold prices is weakening, while downstream material manufacturers are facing low-price purchasing opportunities, resulting in a decline in market transaction focus [3][8]. - The report highlights that the domestic lithium salt supply has significantly increased, with April's lithium carbonate production rising by 32% month-on-month. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has decreased by 3.10% compared to the previous week [3][8]. - The cobalt sector is facing reduced purchasing willingness from downstream buyers, leading to a strong price-cutting mentality. Cobalt companies are extending their reach into the electric new energy downstream manufacturing sector, creating a cost advantage through integration [3][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment - The lithium and cobalt industry maintains an "Overweight" rating. The lithium segment is seeing an increase in upstream lithium salt supply, with prices under pressure due to competitive dynamics among battery manufacturers [3][8]. - The report notes that the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is now between 104,000-110,000 CNY/ton, reflecting a 3.10% decrease from the previous week [3][8]. 2. Company and Industry Dynamics Tracking - Recent announcements include that Shengxin Lithium Energy has begun receiving lithium ore from the Sabi Star mine for production, with a planned annual output of 60,000 tons of lithium salt expected to commence in mid-2024 [10]. - The report mentions that the Inner Mongolia government has set a target for lithium concentrate production capacity to reach 50,000 tons/year by 2025, with a projected industry chain output value exceeding 200 billion CNY by 2030 [10]. 3. Key Data: New Energy Material Production, Imports and Exports, and Metal Prices - The report provides data showing that lithium carbonate production increased by 32% month-on-month and 43% year-on-year. The import volume of lithium carbonate rose by 64% month-on-month [19][23]. - The average price of lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) has decreased by 1.47% compared to the previous week, now ranging from 96,000 to 100,500 CNY/ton [3][9].