地产放松进一步提振非电用煤需求，供需结构性矛盾凸显煤价预期乐观

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry, highlighting a positive outlook for coal prices due to structural supply-demand imbalances and increased non-electric coal demand driven by real estate policy relaxations [1][3]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the recent relaxation of real estate policies is expected to boost non-electric coal demand, leading to an optimistic outlook for coal prices. The structural supply-demand imbalance is becoming more pronounced, suggesting a favorable market environment for coal [3][37]. - It identifies three main investment themes: 1. Focus on leading companies such as China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal, which are stable and have strong operational certainty [3][37]. 2. Increase allocation to coking coal companies like Shanxi Coking Coal and Pingmei Shenma, which have stronger resource attributes [3][37]. 3. Gradually invest in thermal coal companies with overseas exposure and high dividend commitments, such as Yanzhou Coal and Guanghui Energy [3][37]. Summary by Sections Key Company Status - The report provides detailed financial metrics for key companies in the coal sector, including stock prices, earnings per share (EPS), price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, and price-to-book (PB) ratios for 2023 to 2026, indicating a generally positive outlook for these companies [1]. Market Overview - The total market capitalization of the coal industry is reported at 1,788,393 million yuan, with a circulating market value of 483,669 million yuan, reflecting the industry's significant size and investment potential [2]. Price Trends - As of May 16, 2024, the price of Shanxi-produced thermal coal (Q5500) at the port is 865.0 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous week but down 107.5 yuan year-on-year, indicating a decline of 11.1% [4][44]. - The report notes that the average price index for thermal coal in the Bohai Rim region is 713.0 yuan per ton, showing a slight increase of 0.3% week-on-week but a decrease of 2.2% year-on-year [41]. Production and Demand - The report highlights that coal production in April 2024 reached 1.09 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, while sales increased by 6.9% to 1.54 billion tons [5]. - It also mentions that the upcoming summer peak demand period is expected to drive coal prices higher, with traders optimistic about future price movements [38][44]. Coking Coal and Coke Prices - The report indicates that the price of main coking coal at the port is 2,110.0 yuan per ton, down 130.0 yuan from the previous week but up 330.0 yuan year-on-year, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 18.5% [66]. Conclusion - Overall, the report presents a bullish outlook for the coal industry, driven by policy support, demand recovery, and favorable pricing dynamics, making it an attractive sector for investment [3][37].