Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target market price of 188.7 HKD [2][3]. Core Views - In Q1, the company adjusted its strategy, focusing on improving profitability and service quality, resulting in a decline in market share but an increase in profits that exceeded expectations [3][5]. - The company reported a business volume of 7.27 billion parcels in Q1, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%, with a market share of 19.3%, down 1.9 percentage points year-on-year [5][6]. - The report highlights that despite a decrease in market share, the company's net profit for 2024 is projected to be 9.664 billion RMB, with a net profit growth rate of 10.5% [3][5]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2022: 35,377 million RMB - 2023: 38,419 million RMB - 2024E: 42,787 million RMB - 2025E: 49,252 million RMB - 2026E: 53,942 million RMB - Net profit projections are: - 2022: 6,809 million RMB - 2023: 8,749 million RMB - 2024E: 9,664 million RMB - 2025E: 12,228 million RMB - 2026E: 13,384 million RMB - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be: - 2022: 8.23 RMB - 2023: 10.58 RMB - 2024E: 11.69 RMB - 2025E: 14.79 RMB - 2026E: 16.18 RMB [3][4][5]. Strategic Focus - The company is shifting its focus towards enhancing service quality and profitability, which is expected to lead to stable profit growth in the long term [6][5]. - The report notes that the company is increasing its dividend payout ratio and share buyback amounts, which is anticipated to enhance shareholder returns [6][5].
中通快递-W：份额下降，利润增长，业绩略超预期