中国软件：深度受益信创发展，麒麟软件龙头地位稳固

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating a potential upside of more than 15% relative to the relevant market index [7] Core Views - The company's performance is under short-term pressure but is expected to benefit from improvements in the IT services sector [2] - In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 6.723 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 30.26%, and a net loss attributable to the parent company of 233 million yuan [1] - In Q1 2024, the company's revenue was 703 million yuan, down 42.32% year-on-year, with a net loss attributable to the parent company of 111 million yuan [1] - The company's subsidiary, Kirin Software, achieved revenue of 1.273 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 10.16%, and a net profit of 422 million yuan, up 28.26% [3] Financial Performance - The company's revenue is expected to grow to 8.24 billion yuan in 2024, 10.056 billion yuan in 2025, and 12.168 billion yuan in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 22.6%, 22.0%, and 21.0% respectively [2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 135 million yuan in 2024, 186 million yuan in 2025, and 246 million yuan in 2026 [2] - The company's gross margin was 36.9% in 2023, with a slight decrease expected to 35.9% in 2024 and 2025, and 35.6% in 2026 [2] - ROE is projected to improve from -10.2% in 2023 to 5.4% in 2024, 7.1% in 2025, and 8.6% in 2026 [2] Business Segments - In 2023, the company's self-developed software products generated revenue of 1.637 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.61% [2] - Industry solutions contributed 3.451 billion yuan in revenue, down 40.41% year-on-year, while service-based business revenue was 1.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 28.05% [2] Valuation Metrics - The company's PE ratio is expected to be 201.6 in 2024, 146.6 in 2025, and 110.8 in 2026 [2] - The PB ratio is forecasted to decrease from 12.0 in 2023 to 10.9 in 2024, 10.4 in 2025, and 9.6 in 2026 [5] Cash Flow and Balance Sheet - The company's operating cash flow was -495 million yuan in 2023, but is expected to turn positive to 439 million yuan in 2024 [5] - Total assets are projected to grow from 9.256 billion yuan in 2023 to 13.017 billion yuan in 2026 [5] - The company's debt-to-asset ratio was 63.0% in 2023 and is expected to decrease slightly to 61.8% by 2026 [5]