尚待确认的市场拐点

Economic Data Insights - The U.S. April CPI and core CPI year-on-year growth rates were 3.4% and 3.6%, respectively, meeting expectations but lower than previous values[2] - The month-on-month CPI growth rate slowed to 0.3%, below the expected 0.4%[2] - April retail sales growth rate was 0%, falling short of the expected 0.4%[2] - The Conference Board's leading economic index for April dropped to -0.6%, indicating weakening economic strength[2] Federal Reserve Stance - Federal Reserve officials maintain a hawkish tone, indicating that multiple inflation data points are needed before considering rate cuts[2] - Powell stated that the first quarter inflation data has weakened confidence, making it difficult for the Fed to decide on rate reductions[2] - The likelihood of a rate cut in September is currently at 49%, showing a slight increase from the previous week[60] Market Performance - U.S. stock indices have reached new highs, with the three major indices rising between 1% and 2.5%[46] - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 3.1% and 3.8%, respectively[46] - Emerging markets in Asia, such as Vietnam's VN30 and India's SENSEX30, also showed strong performance, rising by 2.6% and 1.7%[46] Risk Factors - Risks include unexpected inflation rebounds, weaker global economic conditions, and geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding the Israel-Palestine conflict[24][25][61] - The geopolitical situation and U.S. election dynamics are becoming more pronounced, potentially leading to market volatility[47]