Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the real estate sector [2] Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing further sales decline and investment pressure, with April's national commodity housing sales area down 17.12% year-on-year and total sales amount down 29.17% year-on-year [4][6] - Despite the ongoing sales decline, policy adjustments are being made to stimulate demand, including lowering down payment ratios and interest rates for housing loans [6] - The report highlights that the financing environment for real estate developers remains challenging, with total funds received by developers down 24.9% year-on-year [5][6] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The real estate sector has seen a significant decline in sales, with a 23.8% year-on-year drop in sales area from January to April 2024 [7] - The sales amount for the same period decreased by 31.1% year-on-year, indicating a continued downturn in market activity [7] Policy Environment - The report notes that the government has been optimizing policies since January 2024, including the establishment of a real estate financing coordination mechanism, which has led to a loan approval amount of 935 billion yuan for "white list" projects [4][6] - Recent policy changes include a 0.25 percentage point reduction in the personal housing provident fund loan rate and the removal of the minimum interest rate for commercial housing loans [4][6] Investment Trends - The report suggests that the market may stabilize and recover as the financing coordination mechanism is implemented and as policies facilitating the exchange of old for new homes are enacted [6] - It recommends focusing on companies with quality land reserves in core urban areas, such as Binjiang Group, Yuexiu Property, and China Overseas Grand Oceans Group, among others [6]
2024年1-4月国家统计局房地产数据追踪：销售进一步下行，投资仍有压力
Tebon Securities·2024-05-20 03:30