Guotai Junan Securities·2024-05-20 05:02Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba (9988.HK) with a target price of 98 HKD for FY2025 [57]. Core Insights - Alibaba's revenue for FY2024Q4 exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7% to 93.2 billion RMB, driven by healthy growth in the Taobao Group and international commerce [11][57]. - The report highlights significant investments in various business segments, particularly in international commerce and cloud services, which are expected to drive future growth [57]. - Adjusted net profit for FY2025E is projected at 153.5 billion RMB, reflecting a slight increase from previous estimates [57]. Summary by Sections 1. Performance Overview - Revenue exceeded expectations, while profits were slightly below expectations [15]. - FY2024Q4 revenue reached 93.2 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7% [57]. - Adjusted net profit for FY2024 was reported at 136.4 billion RMB, a decrease of 11% year-on-year [11][57]. 2. Business Segment Performance 2.1 Taobao Group - Revenue for Taobao Group increased by 3.7% to 93.2 billion RMB, with customer management revenue growing by 5% [57]. - The group continues to invest heavily in supply, pricing power, and service quality, leading to double-digit growth in GMV and transaction volume [57]. 2.2 International Commerce - Revenue for international commerce grew by 45% to 27.4 billion RMB, driven by strong performance in the AliExpress platform [57]. - The adjusted EBITA margin decreased by 3 percentage points to -15% due to continued investments [57]. 2.3 Cloud Intelligence - Cloud revenue increased by 3% to 25.6 billion RMB, with core public cloud products experiencing double-digit growth [57]. - AI-related revenue saw a three-digit percentage increase, indicating strong demand [57]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report projects revenue for FY2025E at 1,027.8 billion RMB, with adjusted net profit expected to reach 153.5 billion RMB [57]. - The valuation table indicates a target price of 98 HKD for Alibaba's stock based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation method [57].