白酒行业更新报告：白酒：趋势降临，更加积极

Investment Rating - The report recommends an "Overweight" rating for the liquor industry, specifically for the baijiu sector, indicating a positive outlook for the stocks involved [1][4][29]. Core Insights - The baijiu sector is expected to exhibit a "weak reality, strong stock price" characteristic, with anticipated marginal improvements in real estate policies and changes in investment logic supporting ongoing valuation [1][6][11]. - The investment paradigm for baijiu is shifting from growth to value, suggesting that there is still room for valuation increases in the medium to long term [1][20]. - Structural growth in the baijiu sector is likely to continue, driven by stable sales and the competitive advantages of larger enterprises [1][8][20]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report suggests increasing positions in stable sales performers such as Shanxi Fenjiu, Yingjia Gongjiu, Gujing Gongjiu, and Kweichow Moutai, as well as undervalued stocks like Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Jianshiyuan, Laobai Ganjiu, and Jinhuijiu [1][4]. Baijiu Sector Characteristics - The baijiu sector is anticipated to show "weak reality, strong stock price" traits, with significant upward drivers from real estate policy changes and evolving investment logic [6][11]. - The report emphasizes that the sector is likely to move away from a "Davis double hit or double kill" scenario, indicating a need for a shift in investment decision-making based on industry conditions [6][11]. Structural Growth - The report predicts that the baijiu sector will maintain a "volume-price rigidity" characteristic, with stable sales performance despite pressures on consumer spending [8][20]. - The demand for baijiu is strongly cyclical, influenced by credit expansion and investment activity, with a typical lag of 1-2 quarters from policy changes to significant improvements in the sector's fundamentals [8][20]. Policy Impact - Recent real estate policy changes, including reduced down payment ratios and lower interest rates, are expected to positively influence the baijiu sector by stabilizing market expectations [12][14]. - The report notes that these policy shifts are likely to enhance the valuation support for the baijiu sector, even under conservative performance assumptions [14][20].