交通运输行业周报：航空票价明显回升，船厂产能约束坚定

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the aviation and oil transportation sectors [4]. Core Insights - Aviation: Ticket prices have rebounded as expected, with resilient demand. After the May Day holiday, there was a short-term dip, but domestic passenger traffic continues to grow steadily, with ticket prices increasing by over 10% compared to previous levels. The market is expected to show continued demand resilience, with a significant recovery in the peak season and stable growth in the off-peak season [3][4]. - Oil Transportation: Freight rates are fluctuating at high levels, with a positive supply-demand outlook for the second half of the year. The average TCE for VLCC from the Middle East to China is around $50,000, while the MR TCE for the new Australia route remains close to $40,000. The OPEC+ production cuts are expected to continue impacting oil transportation positively, with potential for demand-driven increases in the future [3][4]. - Shipbuilding: Shipyards are experiencing capacity constraints, with a significant reduction in active shipyard capacity since 2010. The order coverage for shipyards has reached a new high, and new ship prices have risen to elevated levels. The willingness of shipyards to increase capacity is expected to remain low, maintaining firm capacity constraints [3][4]. Summary by Sections Aviation Sector - Domestic passenger traffic has increased nearly 10% compared to 2019 levels, with ticket prices rebounding over 10% [3][4]. - The aviation market is characterized by distinct peak and off-peak seasons, with strong demand expected during peak periods [3]. Oil Transportation Sector - The TCE for VLCC and MR routes indicates a stable high-rate environment, with OPEC+ production cuts expected to continue influencing market conditions positively [3][4]. - The outlook for oil transportation remains optimistic, with expectations of continued demand growth and potential for exceeding forecasts [3]. Shipbuilding Sector - The shipbuilding industry has seen a significant reduction in active shipyard capacity, with a more than 40% decrease since 2010 [3]. - The order coverage for shipyards is at an all-time high, with new ship prices elevated and limited willingness to expand capacity further [3].