ZPEC(SH:603619) Changjiang Securities·2024-05-20 08:32Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [10][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 3.732 billion yuan for 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.67%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 810 million yuan, up 67.88% year-on-year. The net cash flow from operating activities reached 1.583 billion yuan, a significant increase of 160.70% [27][2]. - In Q1 2024, the company experienced a decline in revenue to 807 million yuan, down 10.74% year-on-year, and a net profit of 172 million yuan, down 19.85% year-on-year [27][2]. - The company has seen a steady increase in oil production, with the Wensu project achieving an output of 154,500 tons in Q1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 18.66% [5]. Financial Performance - The company’s projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are estimated at 1.24 billion yuan, 1.579 billion yuan, and 1.822 billion yuan, respectively, based on an assumed oil price of approximately $80 per barrel [6]. - The company’s total revenue is expected to grow to 4.828 billion yuan in 2024, 5.906 billion yuan in 2025, and 6.728 billion yuan in 2026 [18]. Production Capacity and Cost Efficiency - The company benefits from low production costs, with direct oil costs at $12.97 per barrel, significantly lower than major oil-producing countries [12]. - The company has substantial oil reserves, with the Wensu oilfield having a geological reserve of 30.11 million tons and the Kenge oilfield in Kazakhstan having reserves of 78.535 million tons [28].