LINGYUN CORPORATION(600480) 长江证券·2024-05-20 08:32Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expectations of both performance and valuation improvements, anticipating a potential "Davis Double Click" effect [1][20] Core Views - Short-term: The company has passed the peak of capacity investment, and downstream demand is gradually increasing, which is expected to release profit elasticity. The completion of the private placement enhances the strength of new businesses [1] - Medium to long-term: The company is strategically transforming towards new energy, with significant upfront investments that have weighed on performance. However, the company's battery boxes and hot forming technologies are well-positioned and technologically领先, offering substantial growth potential. The company is entering a profit release cycle in the short term [1][12] - The company's 2024-2026 net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 7.6, 8.6, and 9.7 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13.9X, 12.4X, and 10.9X [1] Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 187.0 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.1%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 6.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 86.4% [3][8] - In Q1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 43.0 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.5%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 163.4% [3][28] - The company's gross margin in 2023 was 16.3%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points year-on-year, with Q4 gross margin reaching 16.8%, up 1.6 percentage points year-on-year and 0.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [8] - In Q1 2024, the company's gross margin reached 18.0%, an increase of 2.7 percentage points year-on-year and 1.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, reaching a recent high [28] Strategic Transformation and Market Position - The company is strategically transforming towards new energy, with a focus on lightweight products and global supply capabilities. The company's market position and profitability are continuously improving [12] - The company's new business orders have been increasing, with annual new project orders reaching a historical high, exceeding the annual target by 200%. The company's market share in body safety structural parts, new energy battery shells, and automotive pipelines exceeds 85%, maintaining a leading position in细分 markets [12] - The company has secured 240 new projects in the metal sector and 344 new projects in automotive pipeline products, expanding into fluid control systems. The Mexican WAM facility has secured 5 new projects from TSL [12] Operational Improvements - The company is actively improving the operations of overseas enterprises and optimizing global布局, enhancing the operational management capabilities of海外 companies. The company is also promoting the operational improvement of German WAG and the capacity enhancement and mass production of key projects at Mexican WAM [12] Financial Forecasts - The company's revenue is forecasted to be 203.2 billion yuan in 2024, 216.6 billion yuan in 2025, and 230.9 billion yuan in 2026 [19] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 7.6 billion yuan in 2024, 8.6 billion yuan in 2025, and 9.7 billion yuan in 2026 [1] - The company's EPS is forecasted to be 0.81 yuan in 2024, 0.91 yuan in 2025, and 1.03 yuan in 2026 [19]