Changjiang Securities·2024-05-20 08:32Investment Rating - The investment rating for Qingdao Beer is "Buy" and is maintained [5]. Core Views - The report highlights that in Q1 2024, the total revenue was 10.15 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.19%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.597 billion yuan, an increase of 10.06%. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1.513 billion yuan, up by 12.11% [5][6]. - The growth in profit is primarily attributed to improvements in cost per ton, despite a decline in sales volume due to high base effects. The sales volume in Q1 2024 was 2.184 million kiloliters, down 7.58% year-on-year, with the main brand's share increasing [5][6]. - The report anticipates that the pressure on sales volume will ease in the short term, with expectations for improved margins as the beer consumption season approaches [5][6]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Analysis - In Q1 2024, total revenue was 10.15 billion yuan, down 5.19%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.597 billion yuan, up 10.06%. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1.513 billion yuan, an increase of 12.11% [5][6]. - The report indicates that the increase in profit is mainly due to a 0.96% decrease in cost per ton, leading to a gross margin increase of 2.12 percentage points to 40.44% [5][6]. Sales Volume and Pricing - The sales volume for Q1 2024 was 2.184 million kiloliters, a year-on-year decline of 7.58%. The main brand's sales decreased by 5.64%, while the mid-to-high-end brands saw a 2.44% decline [5][6]. - The average price per ton increased by 2.6% year-on-year, indicating a positive pricing trend despite volume pressures [5][6]. Future Outlook - The report projects that the net profit attributable to shareholders will reach 5.41 billion yuan in 2024, with growth rates of 26.8%, 19.9%, and 17.6% for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5][6]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 3.97 yuan, 4.76 yuan, and 5.59 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 22X, 18X, and 15X [5][6].