baonengyuan(SZ:000690) Changjiang Securities·2024-05-20 08:32Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][14]. Core Views - The decline in coal prices has significantly alleviated fuel cost pressures, leading to a notable increase in the company's profitability. In Q1, the company achieved a net profit of 2.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 695.70% [2][11]. - The company's electricity generation volume is expected to grow by over 30% year-on-year, which has helped stabilize revenue despite a slight decline in sales [15][11]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 3 yuan per 10 shares, reflecting a high dividend payout ratio of 73.47% for 2023, indicating strong shareholder returns [16]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 21.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.89%, while operating costs fell by 2.32 billion yuan, a decline of 11.24% [2][14]. - The average utilization hours for coal-fired power generation increased by 31 hours year-on-year, reaching 1,128 hours in Q1 2024, which is significantly higher than the provincial average [15]. Future Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2024-2026 is projected to be 0.50 yuan, 0.78 yuan, and 0.88 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 10.79, 6.87, and 6.09 respectively [3][33]. Investment Highlights - The company is expected to expand its capacity significantly with the completion of new power units by early 2025, which will enhance its profitability [16]. - The current debt ratio stands at 41.42%, and the company generated over 2 billion yuan in operating cash flow in 2023, indicating strong financial health and the potential for stable future dividends [16].