化妆品行业双周报：618大促有望催化，看好产品及日销强品牌

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the cosmetics industry, consistent with the previous rating [1]. Core Insights - The 618 shopping festival is expected to catalyze the sector, with simplified event formats and extended periods, leading to a recovery in demand after inventory destocking. Strong product momentum and brands focused on daily sales are anticipated to perform well during this event [3][8]. - Long-term prospects for domestic beauty groups are promising, driven by product innovation and brand upgrades, as well as channel expansion targeting lower-tier consumers. The report highlights significant long-term investment value in the sector due to the increasing market share of domestic brands and strategies involving multi-brand and overseas expansion [3][8]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report suggests increasing holdings in: 1. Brands with strong momentum and single-product drivers like Proya and Giant Bio, benefiting from restructuring and product launches [3][8]. 2. Cost-effective brands with strong operations such as Shumei and Runben, and those undergoing organizational changes like Furuida [3][8]. 3. Companies expected to reach a turning point, including Betaini, Shanghai Jahwa, and others [3][8]. 4. Companies like Jiabiyou that are focusing on capacity release and overseas expansion [3][8]. Industry Updates - The 618 event has seen the cancellation of platform pre-sales, with a simplified format but an extended duration. The Tmall event runs from May 20 to June 20, 2024, while Douyin's event is from May 24 to June 18, 2024. This change is expected to reduce the explosive sales on single days, shifting towards a more consistent sales approach [9][10]. - The report notes that domestic brands have seen a significant increase in market share, with leading brands like Proya and Winaona improving their rankings due to enhanced capabilities in raw materials, product quality, and marketing [8][9]. - Douyin has seen multiple brands ramping up their promotional activities ahead of the 618 event, with brands like Han Shu and Proya achieving significant sales growth compared to the same period in 2023 [18][19]. Key Stock Updates and Profit Forecasts - The report provides updated profit forecasts for key companies, indicating a strong growth trajectory for brands like Proya and Giant Bio, with expected EPS growth rates of 23% and 22% respectively over the next three years [23][20]. - Specific stock prices and ratings as of May 17, 2024, include: - Betaini: 58.29, Increase - Proya: 109.54, Increase - Shanghai Jahwa: 20.98, Increase - Giant Bio: 45.36, Increase [23].