房地产“517”新政点评：政策组合发力，修复预期助力复

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the real estate sector [1] Core Viewpoints - The central theme of the report is the positive impact of recent policy adjustments aimed at stimulating demand in the real estate market, including a reduction in housing loan rates and down payment requirements [2][5] - The report anticipates that these measures will gradually restore market confidence and improve sales in the real estate sector [2][5] Summary by Sections Policy Adjustments - On May 17, 2024, the central bank announced a 0.25 percentage point reduction in personal housing provident fund loan rates, with new rates set at 2.35% for loans of five years or less and 2.85% for loans over five years for first-time buyers [1] - The minimum down payment for first-time homebuyers was adjusted to no less than 15%, while for second homes, it was set at no less than 25%, both down by 5 percentage points from previous levels [2] Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the adjustments are expected to lower the barriers to home purchasing, thereby stimulating potential demand [2] - The central bank's establishment of a 300 billion yuan special loan for affordable housing is projected to facilitate the acquisition of unsold properties by state-owned enterprises, potentially leading to an additional 500 billion yuan in bank loans [2] Inventory Management - The report discusses the government's strategy to address the surplus of unsold properties by encouraging the purchase of these units for affordable housing, which is expected to improve cash flow for developers [3][5] - The report notes that the government aims to collect and construct 8.7 million units of affordable rental housing during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with significant construction tasks still ahead in 2024-2025 [2] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on companies that will benefit from urban village renovations and government purchases of unsold properties, such as Chengjian Development and Tianjian Group [5] - It also recommends developers with land reserves in high-potential cities, like Poly Developments and China Merchants Shekou, as well as intermediary platforms benefiting from property exchanges [5]