NBYS(600366) 华福证券·2024-05-21 01:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the market benchmark index within the next 6 months [22][27]. Core Views - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue and net profit in 2023, with revenue at 5.37 billion yuan, down 16.2% year-on-year, and a net loss of 227 million yuan, a decrease of 163.9% year-on-year [1][19]. - The first quarter of 2024 showed continued pressure on performance due to falling rare earth prices, with revenue of 1.026 billion yuan, down 23.8% quarter-on-quarter, and a net profit of 0.0 billion yuan, a decrease of 100% [1][10]. - The company is expected to benefit from the rebound in rare earth prices and the growth in demand from the air conditioning and home appliance sectors, which are key areas of its business [2][19]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company produced 10,400 tons of neodymium-iron-boron, a year-on-year increase of 2.21%, with sales of 10,800 tons, up 12.21% year-on-year [19]. - The average price of sintered neodymium-iron-boron N52 was 258.2 yuan/kg, down 19.4% year-on-year, reflecting the decline in rare earth prices [19]. - The company's gross margin for neodymium-iron-boron magnetic steel was 6.06%, a decrease of 13.38 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the lag in product price adjustments [19]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to be 5.34 billion yuan in 2024, with a slight decrease of 1% year-on-year, followed by growth of 16% and 14% in 2025 and 2026, respectively [12]. - The net profit forecast for 2024 is 365 million yuan, a significant recovery from the previous year's loss, with expected growth rates of 260% in 2025 and 37% in 2026 [11][12]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the rare earth price decline has pressured the company's performance, but the expected recovery in prices and demand from the electric vehicle and air conditioning sectors presents a positive outlook for future growth [2][10][19]. - The company is also adjusting its production capacity plans, with a delay in the launch of a new project, but it currently has sufficient capacity to meet customer demand [20].