粤开宏观新一轮房地产去库存：背景、政策、难点与展望

Policy Measures - The new real estate policy includes lowering down payment ratios, canceling mortgage rate floors, and reducing public housing loan rates[4] - The central bank will provide 300 billion yuan in relending to support local governments in acquiring unsold residential properties for affordable housing[4] - The policy emphasizes not increasing local government hidden debts while acquiring stock properties and idle land[5] Market Conditions - The inventory clearance cycle for residential properties has extended to 23 months as of Q1 2024, surpassing the previous peak of 21 months in 2015[6] - Property prices have been in negative growth for 25 consecutive months as of April 2024, indicating prolonged market weakness[6] - From January to April 2024, the sales area and sales amount of commercial housing fell by 20.2% and 28.3% year-on-year, respectively[10] Demand and Supply Dynamics - The government aims to stimulate demand and stabilize prices by addressing both new and replacement housing needs[7] - Policies include reducing thresholds for home purchases and government acquisitions of unsold properties for affordable housing[10] - The government is expected to focus on acquiring new homes primarily, with limited involvement in the second-hand housing market[68] Future Recommendations - Further relaxation of purchase restrictions in first-tier cities is necessary, including expanding purchase quotas[43] - Adjustments to down payment ratios and mortgage rates should be made to boost buyer confidence[43] - Increased central government support for local finances is essential to facilitate the acquisition of properties[43]