Soochow Securities·2024-05-21 04:01Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's Q1 2024 performance showed short-term pressure, but the mass delivery of the L6 model is expected to drive upward improvement [1] - Q1 2024 revenue reached 25.63 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 67.67% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 38.6% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1 2024 was 593 million yuan, down 36.3% year-on-year and 89.5% quarter-on-quarter [3] Financial Performance Summary - Q1 2024 vehicle deliveries totaled 80,400 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 52.9% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 39.0% [4] - The gross margin for Q1 2024 was 20.6%, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.2% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2.9 percentage points [4] - R&D and SG&A expenses for Q1 2024 were 3.05 billion yuan and 2.98 billion yuan respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 64.6% and 81.0% [4] Future Outlook - For Q2 2024, the company expects vehicle deliveries to be between 105,000 and 110,000 units, a year-on-year growth of 21.3% to 27.1% [4] - Projected total revenue for Q2 2024 is estimated to be between 29.9 billion and 31.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2% to 9.4% [4] - The company plans to further upgrade its intelligent driving features and expand its supercharging station network to support future electric vehicle sales [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The revenue forecasts for 2024 to 2026 have been adjusted downwards to 151.3 billion, 216.9 billion, and 273.2 billion yuan respectively [5] - The net profit forecasts for the same period have also been revised down to 8.3 billion, 13 billion, and 18.6 billion yuan respectively [5] - Corresponding EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 3.91, 6.14, and 8.75 yuan, with P/E ratios of 24, 15, and 11 times respectively [5]