Soochow Securities·2024-05-21 04:02Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Auto Inc. (02015.HK) [1] Core Views - The Q1 2024 performance of Li Auto is under short-term pressure, but the mass delivery of the L6 model is expected to drive upward improvement [1] - The company achieved a Q1 2024 revenue of 25.63 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 36.4% [3] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for Q1 2024 was 593 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 36.3% [3] - High R&D and sales expenses have impacted Q1 performance, but sales and performance are expected to steadily improve in Q2 2024 [3] - The company has a cash reserve of 98.9 billion yuan as of Q1 2024, supporting long-term R&D investments and business expansion [3] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for Li Auto are adjusted downwards for 2024-2026, with expected revenues of 151.3 billion yuan, 216.9 billion yuan, and 273.2 billion yuan respectively [4] - The net profit forecast for the same period is revised to 8.3 billion yuan, 13 billion yuan, and 18.6 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.91 yuan, 6.14 yuan, and 8.75 yuan [4] - The company’s P/E ratios are projected to be 24, 15, and 11 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4] Market Data - The closing price of Li Auto shares is 99.90 HKD, with a one-year low of 91.55 HKD and a high of 185.50 HKD [5] - The market capitalization is approximately 176.44 billion HKD [5] Operational Insights - As of the end of Q1 2024, Li Auto has established 481 retail centers across 144 cities and has 386 supercharging stations with 1,678 charging piles [3] - The company anticipates vehicle deliveries in Q2 2024 to be between 105,000 and 110,000 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.3% to 27.1% [3]