KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2024-05-21 09:31Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is focusing on stabilizing its extended range matrix while the pure electric strategy is set for a re-launch. The revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted downwards due to increased market competition for extended range models and delays in the release of pure electric models until 2025 [6][7] - The company aims to enhance operational efficiency through organizational restructuring and expects clearer positioning for its pure electric models and Mega facelift in 2025 [6] Financial Summary - Current stock price is HKD 80.65, with a market capitalization of HKD 1711.41 billion and a circulating market value of HKD 1606.38 billion [2] - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been revised to HKD 1350 billion, HKD 1682 billion, and HKD 2141 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 9%, 25%, and 27% [6] - Non-GAAP net profit estimates for the same period have been adjusted to HKD 71 billion, HKD 92 billion, and HKD 135 billion, with corresponding EPS of HKD 3.3, HKD 4.3, and HKD 6.2 [6] - The company’s P/S ratios for 2024-2026 are projected at 1.2, 1.0, and 0.8, while the P/E ratios are expected to be 22.6, 17.5, and 12.1 [6] Recent Performance - In Q1 2024, the Non-GAAP net profit fell to HKD 13 billion, a 72% decrease from Q4 2023, primarily due to lower gross margins and increased expenses [7] - The gross margin in Q1 2024 was 19.3%, down 3.4 percentage points from the previous quarter, influenced by promotional activities [7] - The company has provided guidance for Q2 2024, expecting deliveries of 105,000 to 110,000 vehicles, with projected revenue between HKD 299 billion and HKD 314 billion [8]