Tianfeng Securities·2024-05-22 05:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Eastern Airlines is "Buy" with a target price not specified [2][6]. Core Views - The airline industry is expected to experience a cyclical recovery, driven by the correlation between the aviation cycle and inventory cycle, with signs of recovery in inventory levels anticipated in 2024 [3][4]. - China Eastern Airlines has significant earnings elasticity and a low market value per aircraft, suggesting potential for recovery in profitability as economic conditions improve [4][5]. - The company's revenue and profit forecasts have been adjusted downward due to slow recovery in international routes and ongoing impacts from the pandemic, with projected net profits of 5.44 billion yuan in 2024 and 8.24 billion yuan in 2025 [6][20]. Financial Data and Valuation - Revenue is projected to grow from 113.74 billion yuan in 2023 to 178.20 billion yuan by 2026, with a growth rate of 28.69% in 2024 [21]. - The EBITDA is expected to improve significantly from 3.18 billion yuan in 2023 to 26.46 billion yuan in 2026 [21]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to turn positive in 2024, reaching 5.44 billion yuan, with an EPS of 0.24 yuan per share [21]. - The P/E ratio is projected to improve from -10.89 in 2023 to 8.12 by 2026, indicating a recovery in valuation metrics [21]. - The asset-liability ratio is expected to decrease from 85.30% in 2023 to 81.33% in 2026, reflecting improved financial stability [21].