GF SECURITIES·2024-05-22 06:02Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD.com, with a target price of 39.25 USD per ADS and 153.11 HKD per share [3]. Core Insights - JD.com reported a revenue of 260.05 billion RMB for Q1 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.0%, which is in line with expectations. The non-GAAP net profit for the same period was 8.90 billion RMB, up 17.2% year-on-year. The company's gross margin improved to 15.3%, an increase of 0.47 percentage points compared to Q1 2023 [1][2]. - Retail revenue reached 208.51 billion RMB in Q1 2024, growing by 6.6% year-on-year. The company continues to implement reforms such as lowering commission thresholds and optimizing product categories, which have led to increased order volume and shopping frequency, offsetting the decline in average transaction value [1]. - Service revenue for Q1 2024 was 51.54 billion RMB, an increase of 8.8% year-on-year. Advertising and commission revenue amounted to 19.29 billion RMB, growing by 1.2% year-on-year, with the number of effective merchants on the platform exceeding 1 million [1]. - The earnings forecast for JD.com estimates revenues of 1,159.22 billion RMB, 1,227.02 billion RMB, and 1,294.82 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.9%, 5.8%, and 5.5%. Non-GAAP net profits are projected to be 36.4 billion RMB, 39.7 billion RMB, and 43.7 billion RMB for the same years [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2024 revenue: 260.05 billion RMB, up 7.0% YoY - Non-GAAP net profit: 8.90 billion RMB, up 17.2% YoY - Gross margin: 15.3%, up 0.47 percentage points YoY [1][2]. Retail and Service Revenue - Retail revenue: 208.51 billion RMB, up 6.6% YoY - Service revenue: 51.54 billion RMB, up 8.8% YoY - Advertising and commission revenue: 19.29 billion RMB, up 1.2% YoY [1]. Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024-2026: 1,159.22 billion RMB (6.9% growth), 1,227.02 billion RMB (5.8% growth), 1,294.82 billion RMB (5.5% growth) - Non-GAAP net profit projections: 36.4 billion RMB, 39.7 billion RMB, 43.7 billion RMB for 2024-2026 [2].