QINCHUAN(SZ:000837) Huaan Securities·2024-05-22 09:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The report highlights that the company's Q1 performance improved sequentially, with exports and component business showing year-on-year growth [3] - The machine tool industry experienced a slight decline in revenue and profit in 2023, but exports saw significant growth [3] - The company achieved a revenue of 3.761 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 8.29%, while Q1 2024 revenue was 0.981 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6% but a sequential increase of 5.3% [3][5] - The report indicates that the company is a leading player in the machine tool industry, with a comprehensive layout that enhances its competitive edge amid manufacturing upgrades and accelerated domestic substitution [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported a revenue of 3.761 billion yuan, down 8.29% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.52 billion yuan, down 81% [3][5] - For Q1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 0.981 billion yuan, reflecting a sequential increase of 5.3% from Q4 2023 [3] - The company’s gross margin for 2023 was 17.77%, slightly down by 1.12 percentage points year-on-year [3] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are set at 4.287 billion yuan, 4.895 billion yuan, and 5.592 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 0.14 billion yuan, 0.20 billion yuan, and 0.25 billion yuan [5][6] - The report anticipates a significant recovery in net profit for 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 167.5% [6] Market Position and Growth Drivers - The company’s machine tool business saw a revenue decline of 17.8% in 2023, influenced by industry conditions, while the component business grew by 7.3% [3] - The report notes that the company has successfully entered leading enterprises as users for its gear grinding machines and has seen stable growth in orders for CNC turning centers [3] - The company’s R&D investment reached 200 million yuan in 2023, up 10.1% year-on-year, indicating a commitment to innovation and technology advancement [3][5]