产能过剩时行情如何演绎？13年~15年黑色产能过剩五阶段行情对当下锂电链的启示

Group 1: Industry Overview - The domestic new energy sector has entered a phase of oversupply, with product prices halved, leading to profit clearance across all segments and a dual hit on earnings and valuations in the equity market[1] - Stakeholders are uncertain about when and how the oversupply in the industry will be resolved[1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The black industry is experiencing a supply surplus, with demand and supply factors alternating in pricing[1] - The Big 4 iron ore producers account for approximately 30% to 50% of global production, with their marginal production costs being among the lowest in the industry, positioning them as strong price setters[8] Group 3: Historical Context and Comparisons - The current lithium battery supply chain environment shares similarities with the "declining profit" period of the black chain in 2014[36] - The steel sector's performance can be divided into five phases from 2013 to 2015, with significant fluctuations in profitability and market performance[40] Group 4: Economic Indicators and Risks - The report highlights risks such as potential global economic volatility and the unreliability of historical data in predicting future market conditions[1] - The steel industry has shown a significant decline in demand from key sectors like real estate, home appliances, and automobiles since 2013, leading to a prolonged down cycle[13]