小鹏汽车：Await more details about Mona

Investment Rating - Maintain HOLD rating with a target price of US$10.00, down from US$10.50, indicating a potential upside of 14.0% from the current price of US$8.77 [2][4]. Core Views - Management's positive outlook on the new Mona model and B-class sedan has likely boosted investor confidence in Xpeng's sales growth for 4Q24 and FY25, although this growth has already been incorporated into previous forecasts [2]. - Xpeng's 1Q24 revenue exceeded prior forecasts by 4%, primarily due to a higher-than-expected average selling price (ASP), despite increased incentives [2]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) for 1Q24 was 12.9%, outperforming projections by 1.8 percentage points, largely due to increased R&D service income from Volkswagen [2]. - The company is projected to remain unprofitable in FY25E, with a net loss forecast of RMB5.6 billion [2][4]. Financial Summary - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB30.7 billion in FY23A to RMB44.7 billion in FY24E, representing a year-on-year growth of 45.7% [4][9]. - The gross margin is projected to be 10.3% in FY24E, improving to 11.4% in FY25E, but still below the levels needed to cover selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses [4][9]. - The net loss is expected to decrease from RMB10.4 billion in FY23A to RMB6.0 billion in FY24E, and further to RMB5.6 billion in FY25E [4][9]. Sales Volume and ASP - The sales volume forecast for FY24E has been reduced by 20,000 units to 200,000 units, with expectations of nearly 150,000 units sold in the second half of 2024 [2]. - The average selling price (ASP) for 1Q24 was RMB300,082, reflecting a 35.6% year-on-year increase [8]. Earnings and Valuation - The net loss for 1Q24 was RMB1.4 billion, which was better than previous projections by approximately RMB0.2 billion [2]. - The projected FY25E revenue has been cut by 6% due to lowered ASPs for the new models [2]. - Xpeng's price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is projected at 1.1x for FY25E, compared to competitors Li Auto and BYD, which are trading at 0.8x and 0.7x respectively [2].