Industry Investment Rating - Leading the market-A, maintaining the rating [4] Core Views - The robotics industry is experiencing a weak recovery at the bottom, with expectations for an improvement in demand [1] - Industrial robot demand is expected to bottom out and rebound, with domestic substitution accelerating [2] - Humanoid robots are expected to achieve mass production by 2025 [5] 2023 Annual Report Summary - Revenue growth: The 31 key companies in the robotics sector achieved a total revenue of 548.80 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.28% [2] - Profitability: The sector's overall gross margin was 25.57%, up 0.45 percentage points year-on-year, and the net margin was 6.69%, up 1.48 percentage points [2] - Cash flow improvement: The sector's operating cash flow reached 46.40 billion yuan, a significant increase of 50.87% year-on-year [2] - Inventory and prepayments: Inventory decreased by 3.44% year-on-year to 188.40 billion yuan, while prepayments and contract liabilities decreased by 2.24% to 66.64 billion yuan [2] 2024 Q1 Financial Report Summary - Revenue growth: The sector's revenue in Q1 2024 was 123.32 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.54% year-on-year [1] - Profit pressure: Net profit attributable to the parent company was 724 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 33.82% [1] - Gross margin stability: The sector's gross margin remained stable at 25.57%, while the net margin decreased by 3.05 percentage points to 5.87% [1] - Seasonal cash flow: Operating cash flow in Q1 was -554 million yuan, with most cash inflows concentrated in Q4 [1] Market Performance - The robotics sector showed thematic investment characteristics, with significant fluctuations driven by humanoid robot events [2] - In 2023, the sector's overall increase was 8.12%, outperforming the CSI 300 index, but from the beginning of 2024 to May 21, the sector's overall increase was -3.48% [2] Future Outlook - Industrial robots: Demand is expected to bottom out and rebound, with domestic substitution accelerating. In Q1 2024, China's industrial robot sales increased by 4.8%, and production reached 120,300 units, up 4.9% year-on-year [5] - Humanoid robots: Industrialization is accelerating, with mass production expected by 2025. The domestic supply chain is expected to benefit from cost advantages in the component sector [5] Investment Recommendations - Focus on the recovery of downstream demand for industrial robots and the progress of humanoid robot mass production [6] - Key companies to watch in the industrial robot sector include Estun, Efort, and Topstar [6] - In the humanoid robot sector, focus on core component companies such as Leader Harmonious Drive, Moons' Industries, and Zhaowei Machinery [6]
机械：需求有望触底回升，关注人形bot进展
国投证券·2024-05-23 01:30