2025 年 08 月 01 日 东方雨虹(002271.SZ) 营收业绩承压，现金流和费用率同比改 善，提价或助力 H2 盈利提升 事件：公司发布 2025 年半年报，2025 年上半年，公司实现营收 135.69 亿元（yoy-10.84%），归母净利润 5.64 亿元（yoy-40.16%）， 扣非归母净利润 5.07 亿元（yoy-39.33%）；2025 第二季度，公司 实现营收 76.14 亿元（yoy-5.64%），归母净利润 3.72 亿元（yoy- 37.52%），扣非归母净利润 3.36 亿元（yoy-36.20%）。 营收/业绩承压，渠道结构持续优化，海外营收同比高增。 2025H1，公司实现营收 135.69 亿元（yoy-10.84%），归母净利润 5.64 亿元（yoy-40.16%），受市场需求下行叠加市场价格竞争激 烈等影响，公司营收/归母净利润均同比下滑。其中，Q1/Q2 各季 度公司营收分别 yoy-16.71%/-5.64%，Q2 营收下滑幅度环比收窄。 分渠道看， 2025H1 ，零售 / 工 渠 / 直销渠道营收分别为 50.59/63.47/20.36 亿元，营收增 ...

2025 年 08 月 01 日 华能国际(600011.SH) 风光装机加速+成本控制有力，25H1 归 母净利润同比增长 24.26% 事件： 2025 年 7 月 30 日，公司发布 2025 年半年度报告。2025 年上半年， 公司实现营业收入 1120.32 亿元（同比-5.70%）；实现归属于母公司 股东的净利润 92.62 亿元（同比+24.26%），每股收益为 0.50 元。 成本控制+新能源规模有序扩增，净利润增长 24%，： 2025H1 营业收入的下降主要由于电量和电价同比下降，在此背景下， 公司通过把握燃料价格下行窗口，科学统筹煤炭长协与现货采购，显 著压降燃料成本，推动火电板块利润增长；同时，新能源规模有序扩 增，光伏板块利润贡献稳中有增，共同驱动了利润端增长。 风光装机加速，绿电电量高增长缓解煤电电量下滑： 公司持续推进绿色低碳转型，风电和光伏装机容量持续增长。截至 2025 年 6 月 30 日，公司可控发电装机容量达 152,992 兆瓦，其中风 电 20,038 兆瓦，太阳能发电 24,050 兆瓦，风光合计占比 29%。发电 量方面，上半年中国境内完成的上网电量 2,056 ...

（1）目前公司为全球青霉素上游龙头厂商，我们认为供给格局短 期内变化不大，需求端来看，青霉素制剂为刚性需求有望驱动上 游中间体/原料药市场稳健增长，龙头厂商有望持续受益；制剂方 面，从抗生素集采对公司的影响方面来看，公司展现出一定的韧 公司深度分析 | | 证券研究报告 | | --- | --- | | | 药品(HS) | | 投资评级 | 买入-A | | | 首次评级 | | 6 个月目标价 | 20.71 港元 | | 股价 (2025-07-31) | 14.78 港元 | 2025 年 08 月 01 日 联邦制药(03933.HK) UBT251 海外授权彰显研发成果，创新 管线打开成长天花板 UBT251 海外授权彰显研发实力，创新药管线有望陆续兑现。 UBT251 为国内首个以较高对价授权 MNC 的三靶点减重药物，目前 UBT251 在国内已开启四项临床试验，从进度上来看，预计超重/ 肥胖适应症有望于 2025 年下半年取得关键进展，2026 年上半年 有望完成国内二期临床，并预计有望于 2028 年国内获批上市。竞 争格局方面，三靶药物竞争格局相对良好，UBT251 国内三靶临床 进展 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hisense Home Appliances is "Buy-A" with a target price of 31.41 CNY for the next six months [4][6]. Core Views - Hisense Home Appliances reported a revenue of 49.34 billion CNY for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.08 billion CNY, up 3.0% year-on-year. The second quarter saw a revenue of 24.50 billion CNY, down 2.6% year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.95 billion CNY, down 8.3% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company is accelerating its overseas diversification and digital transformation to enhance production efficiency, which is expected to improve operational performance [1][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, domestic sales revenue decreased by 0.3% while export revenue increased by 12.3%. The second quarter's domestic sales remained flat, and export growth slowed [2]. - The air conditioning segment saw a revenue decline of 6.0% for Hisense Hitachi, attributed to a downturn in the real estate market affecting domestic sales, while exports continued to grow [2]. - The home appliance segment (ice and washing machines) experienced a revenue increase of 4.8% in H1 2025, with domestic sales benefiting from trade-in policies [2][3]. Profitability - The gross margin for Q2 was 21.5%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to improved profitability in the ice and washing machine segment [3]. - The net profit margin for Q2 was 3.9%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, influenced by an increase in expense ratios [3]. Cash Flow - Operating cash flow for Q2 was 5.26 billion CNY, a significant increase of 170.4% year-on-year, primarily due to a 17.6% increase in cash received from sales [3]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to improve profitability through ongoing upgrades in product structure and benefits from trade-in policies driving domestic sales [3][4]. - The projected EPS for 2025 is 2.62 CNY, with a PE valuation of 12x, supporting the target price of 31.41 CNY [6][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" [7] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the increasing power density of electronic devices, driven by the proliferation of technologies such as 5G, AI, and IoT, is leading to significant thermal management challenges. The thermal flow density is approaching 100W/cm², necessitating advanced thermal management solutions to ensure system reliability [1][16][24]. Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Management Challenges - The report discusses the exponential increase in electronic component failure rates with rising temperatures, noting that a 10°C increase can lead to a 50% increase in failure rates [1][16]. - It emphasizes that traditional thermal management systems are nearing their physical limits, making the development of efficient thermal management solutions critical for the evolution of computing power [24]. 2. Passive Cooling Solutions - The report identifies limitations in traditional passive cooling methods, such as metal heat sinks and graphite materials, which struggle with heat transfer efficiency in high-density applications [2][33]. - Vapor Chamber (VC) technology is highlighted as a promising passive cooling solution due to its superior thermal conductivity and ability to meet the demands of increasingly compact electronic devices [2][33]. 3. Active Cooling Solutions - Liquid cooling is presented as a viable solution to overcome the limitations of forced air cooling, with applications in both cloud data centers and consumer electronics [3][4]. - The report notes that the liquid cooling market for data centers is projected to reach $9.231 billion by 2031, indicating significant growth potential [4]. 4. Market Size and Industry Chain - The global market size for VC technology is projected to be $1.089 billion in 2024, with substantial applications across consumer electronics and data centers [4]. - The report outlines the industry chain for VC technology, including upstream raw materials and production equipment, and downstream applications in various sectors [4]. 5. Beneficiary Companies - The report lists several companies that are expected to benefit from advancements in thermal management technologies, including Feirongda, Suzhou Tianmai, and others [5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" investment rating to the company [4] Core Views - The company is experiencing steady growth in sales of its core products, particularly the glucosamine hydrochloride capsules, driven by market expansion through centralized procurement and refined sales management [2][34] - The company is actively developing a comprehensive fish oil product line, aiming for a full industry chain layout to enhance quality and reduce costs [3][55] - The research pipeline includes promising projects in brain health, particularly focusing on the development of a first-class chemical drug, N-acylserine, which has significant potential in treating neurological conditions [3][63] Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company is committed to developing high-end small varieties of "marine drugs" and "major disease medications," leveraging its marine drug development platform to expand its product offerings [11] - The actual controller, Yan Yiyi, holds a total of 23.58% of the company's shares, indicating strong insider confidence [13] - The company has shown steady growth in revenue from 341 million yuan in 2017 to 714 million yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of approximately 11.15% [17] 2. Glucosamine Hydrochloride Capsules - The demand for joint cartilage protectants is increasing, contributing to the steady growth of the domestic glucosamine market, projected to reach approximately 8.3 billion yuan by 2025 [40] - The company has successfully expanded its market coverage through centralized procurement, achieving over 41% market share in nine provinces [44] - Sales of glucosamine capsules in retail pharmacies have grown from 374 million yuan in 2019 to 728 million yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of about 14.28% [48] 3. Fish Oil EPA - The company is advancing a project to produce 1,000 tons of super fish oil EPA, aiming for a high-quality, low-cost production model [55] - The company has submitted new drug applications for EPA soft capsules, which are expected to enhance its position in the lipid-regulating drug market [56] - The sales of EPA/DHA health products in China are projected to grow from 3.2 billion yuan in 2020 to 7.8 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting increasing consumer health awareness [58] 4. Research Pipeline - The company has a rich research pipeline focusing on marine drugs, elderly medications, anti-tumor drugs, and health products, with significant potential in the brain health sector through the development of N-acylserine [3][63]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" investment rating to the company with a target price of 121.50 CNY for the next six months [5][6]. Core Insights - The company reported significant growth in its H1 2025 performance, achieving revenue of 20.799 billion CNY and a net profit of 8.561 billion CNY, representing year-on-year increases of 20.64% and 101.92% respectively [1][2]. - The strong performance is attributed to the rapid development of core businesses, particularly in the small molecule D&M and TIDES sectors, which have seen substantial order growth and capacity expansion [3][4]. Revenue and Profit Growth - In H1 2025, the company generated revenue of 20.799 billion CNY, with the chemical business contributing 16.301 billion CNY (+33.51%), testing business at 2.689 billion CNY (-1.20%), and biological business at 1.252 billion CNY (+7.07%) [2]. - The net profit for H1 2025 reached 8.561 billion CNY, marking a significant increase of 101.92% year-on-year [2]. Business Expansion - The small molecule D&M business has shown robust growth, with 412 new molecules added to the project pipeline in H1 2025, including 76 commercial projects and 84 in clinical phase III [3]. - The TIDES business has also experienced rapid growth, with revenue reaching 5.03 billion CNY (+141.6%) in H1 2025, and a 48.8% increase in orders [4]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 13.952 billion CNY, 14.336 billion CNY, and 15.985 billion CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with growth rates of 47.6%, 2.8%, and 11.5% [5]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 4.86 CNY, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 25 times [5].

国投证券宏观专题报告 7 月政治局会议点评 ——如何理解政治局会议的内涵 袁方1林荣雄2黄玮宗3 魏薇（联系人）4 2025 年 07 月 30 日 内容提要 本次中央政治局会议在财政、货币、消费、企业经营等领域均有 积极表态，稳增长的基调延续，无需担心政策重心的调整。今年以来， 伴随着股市与消费者信心的修复，市场悲观预期已经得到扭转。 从本次会议的各项表述来看，一方面，外部冲击已不构成政策的 主要制约，决策重心向国内倾斜；另一方面，"反内卷"相关的表述 再次被强调，供给侧政策的力度和节奏将在中期之内主导物价乃至名 义经济走势。 考虑到"反内卷"政策对工业品物价的支撑，在稳增长政策延续 的背景下，我们预计三季度名义 GDP 增长有望逐步触底，这为权益 市场的中枢抬升提供了基本面的支撑。 风险提示：（1）地缘政治风险 （2）政策出台超预期 本报告版权属于国投证券股份有限公司，各项声明请参见报告尾页。 1宏观团队负责人，yuanfang@essence.com.cn，S1450520080004 2策略团队负责人，linrx1@essence.com.cn，S1450520010001 3分析师，huangwz1 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" investment rating to the company, with a 6-month target price of 12.67 CNY based on a 12x PE ratio for 2025 [4][6]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 6.369 billion CNY for the first half of 2025, a decrease of 4.44% year-on-year, while the total profit increased by 20.86% to 2.006 billion CNY. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.337 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.48% [1][2]. - The overall operating performance of the company is stable, with profitability showing an upward trend. Key factors contributing to profit growth include improved wind conditions in Fujian province and increased gas-to-electricity settlement volumes [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company generated 107.72 billion kWh of electricity and 4.6443 million tons of heat. The basic earnings per share were 0.48 CNY, up 4.35% year-on-year [2]. - The company’s total installed capacity exceeded 6 million kW, with significant contributions from wind power and gas generation [3]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 14.827 billion CNY, 15.912 billion CNY, and 16.902 billion CNY, with growth rates of 1.8%, 7.3%, and 6.2% respectively. Net profit forecasts are 2.936 billion CNY, 3.064 billion CNY, and 3.405 billion CNY, with growth rates of 5.1%, 4.4%, and 11.1% respectively [4][10]. Valuation Metrics - The report indicates a current PE ratio of 9.0 for 2025, projected to decrease to 7.7 by 2027. The net profit margin is expected to improve from 19.8% in 2025 to 20.1% in 2027 [10].

Economic Overview - In June, industrial enterprise profits worsened further, with a year-on-year decline of 4.3%[9] - The general public budget revenue in June showed a year-on-year growth rate of -0.3%, marking a slight decline of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[4] - Government fund income in June increased by 20.4% year-on-year, a significant rise of 28.2 percentage points from the previous month[7] Market Trends - The equity market has continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the 3500-point level, while the bond market has seen significant adjustments, particularly in the 10-year and 30-year treasury yields[13] - Institutional investors are reducing bond assets and increasing equity assets, reflecting a reversal of behavior seen over the past three years[13] Policy Impact - The "anti-involution" policy has led to significant fluctuations in commodity prices, with expectations that inventory rebuilding and ongoing policy implementation may push prices higher[2] - The introduction of a child-rearing subsidy of 3600 yuan per child per year indicates a shift in policy focus towards consumer and household sectors, although its macroeconomic impact remains limited[12] Future Outlook - The bottom of industrial enterprise profit growth may have been reached, as PPI (Producer Price Index) is expected to stabilize, indicating that the peak pressure on corporate profits may be passing[10] - The ongoing active credit expansion is providing fundamental support for the equity market, with expectations of further upward movement in market levels[15]