BABA(09988) 第一上海证券·2024-05-23 06:01Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating with a target price of 86.28 USD / 84.40 HKD [1][3]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see revenue growth from 2025 to 2027, with projected revenues of 1,023.89 billion CNY, 1,100.12 billion CNY, and 1,195.08 billion CNY respectively. Operating profit is forecasted to be 120.47 billion CNY, 145.77 billion CNY, and 169.02 billion CNY for the same period. The diluted earnings per share are anticipated to be 5.1 USD, 6.2 USD, and 7.3 USD respectively [1][17]. - The e-commerce segment has shown signs of recovery, with a notable increase in GMV, suggesting a potential turning point after years of intense competition. The second half of the year is expected to be particularly important for performance [14]. - The company plans to enhance shareholder returns and is set to complete its dual primary listing in Hong Kong by August 2024, which may lead to inclusion in the Hong Kong Stock Connect program [14]. Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal quarter ending March 31, 2024, the company reported revenue of 221.87 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 7%. Operating profit was 14.77 billion CNY, a decrease of 3% year-on-year. Adjusted EBITA fell by 5% to 23.97 billion CNY, primarily due to increased investments in e-commerce and the withdrawal of IPO-related equity incentives for Cainiao [14][15]. - The company has repurchased $12.5 billion worth of shares, reducing the number of outstanding shares by 5.1% [14]. - The Taobao and Tmall Group reported a revenue increase of 4% to 93.22 billion CNY, with customer management revenue growing by 5% to 63.57 billion CNY. The EBITA margin for this segment was 41% [15]. - The Cloud Intelligence Group's revenue grew by 3% to 25.60 billion CNY, with a significant increase in AI-related revenue, which saw triple-digit growth year-on-year [15]. Segment Performance - The e-commerce segment is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with overseas e-commerce revenue increasing by 45% to 27.45 billion CNY. Retail orders overall grew by 20% [15]. - The logistics segment, Cainiao, reported a revenue increase of 30% to 24.56 billion CNY, driven by cross-border logistics services [15]. - The Cloud Intelligence Group is projected to see an increasing share of revenue, with expectations for improved profit margins as project-based contracts decrease [15].