债市角度看上市银行年报系列之一：息差回归至合理水平或仍需政策端发力240513

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - In 2023, the total asset growth rate of A+H listed banks remained high at 11.2%, with asset quality improving and risks being generally controllable. However, the trend of "regularization" of deposits continues, leading to an overall increase in deposit costs and a record low net interest margin [1][9][30] - Looking ahead to 2024, asset quality is expected to maintain a stable upward trend, but attention should be paid to related risks. The trend of deposit "regularization" may gradually ease, and the probability of further reduction in deposit costs is high. Although the net interest margin may still be in a downward channel, the extent of the decline may narrow [1][11][30] Summary by Sections 1. Fundamental Situation Summary and Outlook - The total asset growth rate of listed banks in 2023 was 11.2%, with asset quality continuing to improve. The risk is generally controllable, but attention is needed for weaker regional rural commercial banks [9][30] - The loan structure shows a significant decline in the proportion of mortgage loans, with real estate loans still showing no signs of recovery [20][30] 2. Asset Side - The total asset scale of A+H listed banks reached 288.7 trillion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 11.20% [13] - The asset structure indicates a differentiation in loan proportions, with interbank assets decreasing and bond investments increasing [18][30] - The proportion of personal housing loans has significantly decreased to 21.2%, the lowest level since 2017 [20][30] - The overall non-performing loan ratio decreased to 1.59%, but rural commercial banks showed an increase in risk [22][30] 3. Liability Side - The overall structure of interest-bearing liabilities remained stable, with a slight increase in the proportion of deposits for joint-stock banks and city commercial banks [32][30] - The trend of "regularization" of deposits continues, with a notable increase in the proportion of fixed-term deposits [34][30] - Deposit costs have risen, but there is an expectation for a decline in 2024 due to regulatory changes and market conditions [40][30] 4. Profitability - The net interest margin for commercial banks fell to 1.69%, the lowest since 2017, with significant pressure on both sides of the balance sheet [41][30] - The average cost of deposits increased, but there is an expectation for a reduction in 2024 as high-interest deposit behaviors are regulated [40][30] 5. Capital Adequacy Ratio - The capital adequacy ratio of listed banks has shown an overall upward trend, but the performance varies among different types of banks [3][30]