财政数据点评（2024.4）：土地出让金收支下滑或螺旋强化地产需求下行压力

Revenue and Budget Analysis - In April 2024, the national general public budget revenue was 20,049 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 3.7%, a significant drop of 1.3 percentage points compared to March[10] - The decline in personal income tax contributed -0.8 percentage points to the year-on-year budget revenue, indicating a decrease in annual bonus payments due to the delayed effect of the Spring Festival[10] - The value-added tax's contribution to the April budget revenue decline was -2.9 percentage points, reflecting ongoing high base effects from tax deferrals in previous quarters[10] Expenditure and Investment Insights - General public budget expenditure in April increased by 9.0 percentage points year-on-year, reaching a growth rate of 6.1%[10] - Infrastructure investment, particularly in agriculture, rural community affairs, and environmental protection, significantly contributed to the expenditure growth, rising by 2.2 percentage points to 1.7%[10] - Government fund income fell by 18.2% year-on-year in April, with land transfer income declining by 21.2%, indicating a cooling real estate market[10] Future Outlook and Risks - The slow issuance of special bonds and long-term treasury bonds is expected to further reduce government fund expenditures, potentially leading to a decline in traditional infrastructure investment growth in Q2[10] - The ongoing pressure on real estate demand and insufficient internal consumption momentum may necessitate a shift in infrastructure investment leadership from local to central government[10] - The risk of broad fiscal financing falling short of expectations remains a concern, potentially impacting economic stability[10]