宏观·周度报告：国内经济供强需弱，美国通胀低于预期

Economic Outlook - The domestic economy is showing signs of recovery, characterized by strong supply and weak demand, with April's industrial output increasing by 6.7% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 5.5%[7] - Fixed asset investment growth slowed to 4.2% year-on-year in the first four months, below the expected 4.6%[8] - Retail sales in April grew by only 2.3% year-on-year, significantly lower than the expected 3.8%[20] Monetary and Fiscal Policy - The issuance of special long-term bonds totaling 1 trillion yuan is set to boost investment and credit in the second and third quarters[11] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is expected to maintain a loose monetary policy, with potential for further rate cuts or reserve requirement ratio reductions[24][45] - The recent reduction in down payment ratios for first and second homes aims to stimulate the real estate market, with minimum down payments now at 15% and 25% respectively[15][16] Inflation and Consumer Prices - The U.S. April CPI rose by 3.4% year-on-year, aligning with expectations, while core CPI increased by 3.6%[5][50] - Japan's central bank reduced its bond purchase amount for the first time since December, which may lead to upward pressure on bond yields[33] Commodity Market Trends - Commodity prices are expected to remain strong in the short term, driven by U.S. inflation data and domestic real estate policy adjustments[4][17] - The geopolitical landscape, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle East tensions, continues to disrupt energy and supply chains[4] Investment Sentiment - The market's risk appetite is recovering due to lower-than-expected inflation data from the U.S., which has renewed expectations for interest rate cuts[5][51] - The combination of fiscal stimulus and monetary easing is anticipated to support economic recovery and stabilize market conditions[23][21]