策略专题：产能过剩时行情如何演绎？13年~15年黑色产能过剩五阶段行情对当下锂电链的启示

Core Viewpoints - The domestic new energy industry has entered a phase of overcapacity, leading to a significant decline in product prices and profit compression across the supply chain, resulting in a dual decline in earnings and valuations in the equity market [1] - The lithium battery industry chain is expected to see a wave of excess returns in the second half of the year, driven by cost reductions from falling lithium carbonate prices, strong demand for power batteries, and capacity control policies, similar to the "recessionary profit" period in the steel industry in 2014 [1] Industry Analysis Steel Industry Overcapacity Cycle (2013-2015) - The steel industry experienced five distinct phases during the overcapacity cycle from 2013 to 2015, with varying performance relative to the broader market [13] - Phase 1 (Jan 2013 - Feb 2014): Steel underperformed due to macroeconomic and industry pressures [4] - Phase 2 (Mar 2014 - Jun 2014): Steel performance was in line with the market as capacity reduction expectations began to emerge [13] - Phase 3 (Jul 2014 - Jan 2015): Steel rebounded sharply due to macroeconomic easing and "recessionary profit" improvements [13] - Phase 4 (Feb 2015 - Aug 2015): Steel performance was volatile, largely in line with the market [4] - Phase 5 (Sep 2015 - Dec 2015): Steel underperformed again due to renewed macroeconomic pressures and increased supply from overseas iron ore producers [134] - During the overcapacity cycle, the steel industry's pricing was influenced by alternating factors of demand and supply, with different segments (e.g., special steel vs. ordinary steel) showing varying levels of resilience [14] Lithium Battery Industry - The current lithium battery industry chain shows similarities to the steel industry's "recessionary profit" period in 2014, with potential for excess returns in the second half of the year [1] - The lithium battery supply chain is structurally similar to the steel industry, with upstream mining, midstream processing (e.g., cathode materials), and downstream battery production [62] Market Performance Steel Industry - In Phase 1 (Jan 2013 - Feb 2014), special steel stocks outperformed ordinary steel stocks, with companies like Yulong Co (+69%) and Jiuli Special Materials (+58%) leading the gains [81] - In Phase 3 (Jul 2014 - Jan 2015), the steel sector rose 87%, significantly outperforming the broader market, driven by expectations of improved real estate demand [93] - In Phase 5 (Sep 2015 - Dec 2015), steel stocks experienced a sharp decline, with special steel stocks (-17%) outperforming ordinary steel stocks (-26%) [142] Lithium Battery Industry - Lithium mining stocks began to decouple from lithium carbonate spot prices in late 2022, as investors anticipated a new capital expenditure cycle and increased supply [148] Supply and Demand Dynamics Steel Industry - The overcapacity in the steel industry was driven by a combination of increased supply from both domestic and international sources (e.g., Big 4 iron ore producers) and weakening demand from key sectors like real estate, home appliances, and automobiles [29] - Inventory pressures were most severe at the steel mill level, followed by midstream traders, with upstream iron ore inventories being the least pressured [78] Lithium Battery Industry - The lithium battery industry is currently experiencing a similar dynamic, with rapid demand growth post-pandemic leading to a surge in upstream mining capital expenditures, similar to the steel industry's expansion in 2012 [61] Policy Impact - A series of policies aimed at reducing steel capacity were introduced starting in September 2013, including the "Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan," which targeted a reduction in crude steel capacity by 8% [52] - These policies led to market expectations of capacity reduction, which played a role in the steel industry's performance during the overcapacity cycle [52] Cost and Profit Analysis - In the steel industry, the 90th percentile production cost is a key support level for commodity prices, as seen in the case of copper and iron ore [152] - During the overcapacity cycle, steel mill profits were significantly compressed, with average simulated profits dropping to 350 yuan/ton in 2013, down from 880 yuan/ton in previous years [72] Capital Expenditure and Supply - The Big 4 iron ore producers (Vale, BHP, Rio Tinto, FMG) entered a new capital expenditure cycle in 2010, with capital expenditure growth peaking in Q4 2012 at a 58% year-on-year increase [11] - This increase in capital expenditure led to a significant expansion in iron ore supply, which contributed to the overcapacity in the steel industry [11] Inventory and Profitability - Inventory levels in the steel industry were a key indicator of profitability, with downstream inventory reductions in early 2014 leading to expectations of restocking and improved profitability [115] - However, if downstream demand did not materialize, the positive impact of low inventory levels on profitability would diminish [145]