中泰证券【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】固收肖雨：长期限信用债：怎么看，如何投？

Group 1: Real Estate Industry Insights - The real estate industry is experiencing a significant decline in investment, with a year-on-year decrease of 9.8% in real estate investment from January to April 2024, and new construction down by 24.6% [3] - The sales of commercial housing have also dropped, with a sales area decrease of 20.2% and sales revenue down by 28.3% in the same period [3] - Policy adjustments, including lowering down payment ratios and interest rates, are expected to stabilize the market and improve sales gradually [3] Group 2: Long-term Credit Bonds - Long-term credit bonds, defined as those with a remaining term of 5 years or more, represent a small portion of the overall credit bond market, accounting for only 3.16% of the total [7] - The issuance of long-term credit bonds has increased significantly in early 2024, with a total issuance of 0.71 trillion yuan in the first quarter, nearly matching the total for 2023 [7] - Despite low interest rates, long-term credit bonds still offer absolute returns, with credit spreads for long-term bonds reaching 120 basis points, making them an attractive option for investors seeking higher yields [7] Group 3: Low-altitude Economy Development - Recent policies from various cities, including Beijing and Nanjing, aim to promote the low-altitude economy, with targets for significant growth in the number of related enterprises and overall industry scale [10][11] - Beijing's plan aims to increase the number of low-altitude economy enterprises to over 5,000 and generate more than 1 trillion yuan in economic growth by 2027 [10] - Investment opportunities are expected to arise in the construction sector related to low-altitude economic planning and design [11]