万联证券万联晨会

Core Insights - Economic differentiation continues, with a focus on future demand changes [8] - The real estate sector is experiencing continued investment decline, with new construction and sales growth slowing, while policies are being relaxed to support the market [9][32] - The agricultural sector shows signs of recovery, with narrowing losses in the breeding industry and stable growth in agricultural product processing [13][45] Economic Overview - In April, national public budget revenue was 80,926 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.7%, but comparable growth is around 2% after adjusting for special factors [6] - The manufacturing sector remains a key driver of investment, with a slight decline in growth rates but supported by high-tech industries and exports [9][32] Real Estate Sector - Real estate investment continues to decline, with new construction and sales under pressure, but financing for key projects is improving [9][32] - Recent policy changes include lowering down payment ratios and removing interest rate floors for housing loans, aimed at boosting market confidence [22][32] - The government is actively working on inventory reduction and supporting the construction of affordable housing [22][32] Agricultural Sector - The agricultural sector's total revenue in Q1 2024 was 2,784.80 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.28%, but net profit losses have narrowed significantly [13] - The breeding industry is expected to see a gradual increase in profits as pig prices rise and costs decrease [13][45] Textile and Apparel Sector - The textile and apparel industry performed well in 2023, outperforming the market index, but faced challenges in 2024 with a slight decline in revenue [44] - The jewelry sector has shown strong performance due to rising gold prices and increased sales [44] Market Performance - The A-share market saw major indices rise, with significant increases in sectors such as gold, pork breeding, and coal [40]