东海证券晨会纪要

Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that April's economic supply is strong, but domestic demand remains weak, particularly in the real estate sector, which continues to decline [43][77] - Recent real estate policies, including lowering down payment ratios and interest rate limits, are expected to stabilize the market gradually [43][8] - The government is increasing fiscal support, with a focus on accelerating the issuance of special bonds to boost infrastructure investment [9][20] Company-Specific Insights - Kede CNC (688305) is positioned as a leader in high-end five-axis CNC machine tools, showcasing significant potential for domestic substitution due to limited imports [12][24] - The company has achieved a full industry chain layout for high-end five-axis CNC machine tools, control systems, and key components, with its products widely used in high-end manufacturing sectors such as aerospace and military [24][25] - Kede CNC's financial performance is robust, with projected net profits of 155 million, 234 million, and 331 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, indicating a strong growth trajectory [13][47] Industry Trends - The high-end CNC machine tool market in China is expected to grow significantly, with a projected market size of 20.216 billion yuan by 2027 [12] - The domestic high-end machine tool industry is experiencing a surge in demand due to the rise of high-end manufacturing sectors, including military and aerospace, which is driving the need for advanced manufacturing equipment [25] - The report notes that the domestic high-end machine tool localization rate is currently around 10%, indicating substantial room for growth and import substitution [12][24]