全球地缘风险下的制造业扩张周期

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a shift in major economies from prioritizing efficiency to prioritizing security in economic development [3][4] - It highlights the risks associated with over-reliance on international markets, which can lead to economic vulnerabilities and increased exposure to global price fluctuations and trade disputes [4][6] - The report discusses the hollowing out of the manufacturing sector in the U.S. due to the pursuit of lower costs and broader markets, leading to a decline in domestic manufacturing competitiveness [7][10] Economic Trends - From 2000 to 2023, U.S. corporate annual profit growth averaged approximately 7.59%, significantly outpacing wage growth of 4.16%, contributing to widening wealth disparity [11] - The report notes that China's industrial value added has been increasing, with a significant share of global industrial output, indicating potential for growth in manufacturing capabilities [17][16] U.S.-China Trade Relations - The report outlines the intensifying trade tensions between the U.S. and China, particularly in technology sectors, with potential for increased tariffs and restrictions on key industries [22][38] - It suggests that the U.S. may strengthen restrictions on core technologies, impacting sectors such as semiconductors and renewable energy [22][23] Manufacturing Sector Dynamics - The report indicates a trend of U.S. manufacturing returning to domestic shores, driven by government incentives and investments in key industries such as semiconductors and clean energy [25][26] - It highlights the need for China to enhance its manufacturing quality and technological standards to compete effectively on a global scale [46][47] Investment Opportunities - The report identifies potential investment opportunities in sectors that are likely to benefit from domestic production and technological advancements, particularly in semiconductors and renewable energy [44][67] - It emphasizes the importance of building resilient supply chains and the potential for domestic companies to fill gaps left by foreign competitors [56][69]