Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Logistics (2618 HK) with a target price of HK$13.20 [1][20]. Core Insights - JD Logistics reported strong performance in Q1 2024, with revenue and net profit exceeding expectations. Revenue grew by 14.7% year-on-year, driven by significant increases in transactions with JD Group (JD US) and Debon Logistics, which rose by 14.9% and 25.5% respectively [1][20]. - The number of integrated supply chain customers has shown positive year-on-year growth, which is expected to accelerate revenue growth [1][20]. - The gross profit margin increased by 320 basis points to 7.7%, marking the first profitable quarter for JD Logistics, with adjusted net profit margin turning positive at 1.3% compared to -1.9% in Q1 2023 [1][20]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2024 revenue reached RMB 42,137 million, with a year-on-year growth of 14.7% [7]. - The gross profit for Q1 2024 was RMB 3,231 million, with a gross profit margin of 7.7% [7]. - The adjusted net profit for Q1 2024 was RMB 541 million, reflecting a significant turnaround from the previous year [7]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from JD Group accounted for RMB 12,883 million in Q1 2024, showing a year-on-year increase of 14.9% [7]. - Revenue from external customers grew by 14.7% in Q1 2024, indicating a recovery in the integrated supply chain business [7]. Future Guidance - The company has set a full-year revenue guidance for 2024 with a high single-digit growth expectation, and an adjusted net profit margin forecast of 1.7% to 2.0% [2][4]. - The management believes that the strong performance in Q1 2024 lays a solid foundation for achieving the annual targets [2][4]. Valuation Metrics - The target price of HK$13.20 is based on a DCF model with a perpetual growth rate of 2% and a WACC of 11.7% [4][6]. - The current stock price is HK$9.80, indicating a potential upside of 35% [6]. Market Comparison - The report notes that the revenue forecast for 2024E is RMB 181,860 million, which is 2% lower than market expectations [4]. - The projected EPS for 2024E is RMB 0.40, aligning closely with market estimates [4]. This comprehensive analysis highlights the positive trajectory of JD Logistics, underpinned by strong Q1 performance and optimistic future guidance.
京东物流：1Q24业绩表现强势：收入、净利润均超预期