XIAOMI(01810) 开源证券·2024-05-24 07:02Investment Rating - The investment rating for Xiaomi Group-W (01810.HK) is maintained as "Buy" [2][3][10] Core Views - The sustained upward momentum in the automotive sector, along with high-end product strategies and export growth, is expected to enhance the long-term outlook for the company [3] - The expansion of the IoT business scale and gross margin has exceeded expectations, while short-term losses in innovative sectors like automotive are anticipated to be lower than market expectations [4][5] - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are 20.3 billion, 22.7 billion, and 21.9 billion RMB, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 5.3%, 11.9%, and -3.8% respectively [3][6] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the company reported revenue of 75.5 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 27%, and an adjusted net profit of 6.5 billion RMB, up 100.8% year-on-year [4] - The mobile business generated revenue of 46.5 billion RMB, a 32.9% increase year-on-year, while the IoT business revenue reached 20.4 billion RMB, growing 21% year-on-year [4] - The gross margin for the IoT business improved to 19.9%, up 4.2 percentage points year-on-year, driven by a focus on high-margin products [4] Future Projections - The company expects mobile shipments in 2024 to be between 160 million and 165 million units, with a projected gross margin of 12-13% [5] - IoT business revenue growth is anticipated to slightly exceed 10% in 2024, supported by seasonal demand for home appliances and traditional marketing peaks [5] - The automotive sector's losses are expected to be lower than market forecasts due to sufficient prior orders and faster-than-expected production ramp-up [5] Valuation Metrics - The current stock price of 18.94 HKD corresponds to P/E ratios of 22.4, 20.0, and 20.8 for the years 2024-2026 [3][6] - The projected operating revenue for 2024 is 337.17 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 24.4% [6] - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be 20.3 billion RMB, reflecting a 5.3% increase year-on-year [6]