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银行：禁止“手工补息”影响测算
Caixin Securities·2024-05-24 08:30

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Synchronize with the market" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report maintains that the prohibition of "manual interest supplementation" by the central bank will compress the space for corporate fund turnover arbitrage, helping to lower the cost rate on the bank's liability side and alleviate net interest margin pressure, which is beneficial for the banking sector's fundamentals [4][5] - The banking sector is currently showing a high cost-performance ratio under the backdrop of declining risk-free yields, with high dividend strategies presenting stage-specific opportunities [5] - The report emphasizes a focus on banks with excellent asset quality and sustainable capital, particularly招商银行 (China Merchants Bank) and宁波银行 (Ningbo Bank), which are expected to see early performance recovery [5] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Performance - The banking sector has shown a 5.06% increase over the past month, 10.68% over the past three months, and 8.18% over the past year, outperforming the沪深300 index which has seen increases of 4.03% and 6.58% over the same periods, but a decline of 6.59% over the past year [1] Key Stocks and Earnings Projections - 招商银行 (China Merchants Bank) is projected to have an EPS of 5.81 in 2023, with a PE ratio of 6.24, and is rated as "Buy" [3] - 宁波银行 (Ningbo Bank) is expected to have an EPS of 3.87 in 2023, with a PE ratio of 6.65, and is also rated as "Buy" [3] - 建设银行 (China Construction Bank) is projected to have an EPS of 1.33 in 2023, with a PE ratio of 5.37, and is rated as "Buy" [3] Manual Interest Supplementation - The central bank's initiative to ban "manual interest supplementation" aims to maintain competitive order in the deposit market, which has been a tool for banks to attract deposits through unofficial interest rate subsidies [4] - The estimated scale of manual interest supplementation among 15 national banks is between 17 trillion to 19 trillion yuan, accounting for approximately 50%-53% of all corporate demand deposits [5][6]