Guoxin Securities·2024-05-24 10:02Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan [10][11]. Core Insights - Meituan's flash purchase business is positioned as a second growth curve for home delivery services, leveraging its existing delivery network and user base to drive growth [10]. - The projected Gross Transaction Value (GTV) for the flash purchase business is expected to reach between 4,300 billion to 6,815 billion yuan by 2027, with a potential operating profit range of 8.6 billion to 13.6 billion yuan [10]. - The stock price increase since 2024 is attributed to macroeconomic recovery, reduced competition in the dine-in segment, and profit release from new business ventures [10]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue is projected to grow from 328 billion yuan in 2024 to 4,225 billion yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13% [6][8]. - The adjusted net profit is forecasted to be 36.3 billion yuan in 2024, 45.7 billion yuan in 2025, and 58.4 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 27% [6][10]. Business Segments Performance - The flash purchase segment is expected to see revenue growth rates of 35%, 29%, and 21% from 2024 to 2026, driven by an increase in daily order volume [8][10]. - The core local business is projected to maintain a profit margin of around 18% to 19% during the same period [8]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - Meituan's flash purchase service covers approximately 2,800 cities and counties, significantly outpacing competitors in terms of market reach [48]. - The company benefits from a stable and efficient delivery network, achieving an average delivery time of 30 minutes, which enhances customer satisfaction and operational efficiency [48][50]. Customer Demographics and Behavior - The primary customer base consists of young and high-precision individuals, with a significant overlap with existing food delivery users, indicating a strong potential for cross-selling [31][10]. - The value proposition for customers emphasizes speed, variety, quality, and cost-effectiveness, aligning with consumer preferences for convenience [31].