银行行业点评：禁止“手工补息”影响测算

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Synchronize with the market" [10] Core Viewpoints - The central bank's prohibition of "manual interest supplementation" is expected to compress the space for corporate fund turnover arbitrage, which will help reduce the cost rate of bank liabilities and alleviate net interest margin pressure, benefiting the banking sector's fundamentals [6][7] - In the context of declining risk-free yields, the banking sector's cost-effectiveness is highlighted, and high dividend strategies still present stage-specific opportunities, particularly for China Construction Bank [6] - The report emphasizes a focus on banks with excellent asset quality and sustainable internal capital, such as China Merchants Bank, and those with early performance recovery and favorable volume and price dynamics, like Ningbo Bank [6] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The average cost rate of corporate demand deposits for listed state-owned banks was 1.18% at the end of 2023, significantly higher than the 0.2% rate of the five major banks and China Merchants Bank [6] - The scale of manual interest supplementation deposits among 15 national banks is estimated to be between 17 trillion to 19 trillion yuan, accounting for approximately 50%-53% of all corporate demand deposits [7] Key Stocks - China Merchants Bank: EPS (元) 5.81 (2023A), PE (倍) 6.24, Rating: Buy [5] - Ningbo Bank: EPS (元) 3.87 (2023A), PE (倍) 6.65, Rating: Buy [5] - China Construction Bank: EPS (元) 1.33 (2023A), PE (倍) 5.37, Rating: Buy [5]