华金宏观·双循环周报（第59期）：美元重返105，“301调查”再掀波澜

Real Estate Policy - Recent real estate policies have led to a slight rebound in second-tier cities, with transaction volumes reaching 41.1% of pre-pandemic averages[29] - First and third-tier cities continue to show no significant improvement, remaining in a downward trend[29] - The current policies emphasize structural adjustments rather than aggressive demand stimulation, focusing on existing inventory rather than creating new demand[29] Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve's May meeting minutes indicate a more hawkish stance than previously expected, with a projected inflation return to 2% over the medium term[17] - The Fed is satisfied with the current economic performance, expecting a gradual balance in the labor market and a stable unemployment rate[16] - The market anticipates two rate cuts of 25 basis points each by September 2024, with the dollar index returning to above 105[31][20] Global Economic Trends - Manufacturing PMI in developed economies has generally rebounded, with the U.S. PMI rising to 50.9, indicating sustained domestic demand[38] - In contrast, the Eurozone's PMI remains low at 47.4, suggesting a potential for more aggressive rate cuts by the European Central Bank[38] - The U.S. government has imposed new tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and batteries, with rates reaching up to 100% for certain products, reflecting a protective stance[43][58] Commodity Prices - Recent trends show a decline in gold, oil, and copper prices, indicating a broader market adjustment[9][71][10] - The overall yield on U.S. Treasury bonds has increased, while Chinese bond yields have decreased, widening the yield gap between the two countries[66][55]