理想汽车-W（02015）2024Q1点评报告：2024Q1销量业绩环比承压，新品上市静待反弹

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Accumulate" [6] Core Views - The company's Q1 2024 performance was under pressure due to multiple factors, leading to a downward adjustment in earnings expectations. However, with the anticipated sales recovery from new product launches, the overall outlook remains cautiously optimistic [6][4] - The total vehicle deliveries in Q1 2024 were 80,400 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 52.9% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 39.0%. Revenue from vehicle sales was 24.3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 32.3% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 39.9% [3][4] - The company is accelerating its charging infrastructure, expecting to have over 2,000 supercharging stations and more than 10,000 charging piles operational by the end of 2024, which will support sales recovery [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 25.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.4% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 38.6%. The net profit was 591 million yuan, down 36.7% year-on-year and 89.7% quarter-on-quarter. The gross margin was 20.6%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.2 percentage points but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2.9 percentage points [2][4] - The vehicle gross margin was 19.3%, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.5 percentage points and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 3.4 percentage points, primarily due to changes in pricing strategy and a reduction in average selling price [2][4] Future Outlook - For Q2 2024, the company expects vehicle deliveries to be between 105,000 and 110,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 30.6% to 36.8%. Revenue is projected to be between 29.9 billion and 31.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 16.7% to 22.5% [3][4] - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2024-2026, expecting revenues of 161.3 billion, 236.5 billion, and 286.1 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 30%, 47%, and 21% respectively [6][7]