Soochow Securities·2024-05-26 02:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group [1] Core Views - Xiaomi Group's Q1 2024 performance exceeded market expectations, with total revenue reaching 75.5 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 27%, and adjusted net profit hitting 6.5 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 101%, marking a historical high [2][3] Financial Performance Summary - Total Revenue (Million RMB): - 2022A: 280,044 - 2023A: 270,970 - 2024E: 329,333 (21.54% YoY growth) - 2025E: 364,684 (10.73% YoY growth) - 2026E: 400,121 (9.72% YoY growth) [2] - Net Profit Attributable to Shareholders (Million RMB): - 2022A: 2,474 - 2023A: 17,475 - 2024E: 16,130 (-7.70% YoY) - 2025E: 19,692 (22.08% YoY growth) - 2026E: 22,578 (14.65% YoY growth) [2] - Latest Diluted EPS (RMB/share): - 2022A: 0.10 - 2023A: 0.70 - 2024E: 0.65 - 2025E: 0.79 - 2026E: 0.90 [2] Business Segment Performance - Smartphone Business: - Q1 revenue reached 46.5 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 33%, with a gross margin of 14.8%, up 3.6 percentage points YoY. The company shipped 40.6 million units, a 34% increase YoY, significantly surpassing the global average growth rate of 9.8% [3] - IoT and Internet Business: - IoT and lifestyle product revenue for Q1 was 20.4 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 21%, with a gross margin of 19.9%, a historical high. The internet business revenue reached 8 billion RMB, a historical high, with a year-on-year increase of 15% and a gross margin of 74.2% [4] Strategic Outlook - The company aims to deliver 100,000 vehicles this year, with a target of 120,000. As of April 30, the cumulative orders for the SU7 model reached 88,063 units. The company plans to expand its sales network to cover 46 cities by the end of the year [5] Earnings Forecast and Investment Rating - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 has been adjusted to 16.1 billion, 19.7 billion, and 22.6 billion RMB respectively. The latest closing price corresponds to P/E ratios of 28.3, 23.2, and 20.0 times for 2024, 2025, and 2026 [5]