宏观专题：对近期地产政策的评述与思考

Policy Impact - The recent housing policy adjustments aim to boost home buying demand through the relaxation of purchase restrictions and the reduction of down payment ratios, which are expected to lower residents' interest expenses by approximately 8.7 billion in 2024 and over 20 billion starting in 2025[1] - The adjustment of the down payment ratio is projected to reduce residents' current home purchase down payment expenditures by nearly 300 billion in 2024[1] - The cancellation of the personal housing loan interest rate floor is expected to have a marginal impact primarily in first-tier cities and some second-tier cities where the floor has not yet been lifted[1] Financial Projections - The newly established 300 billion yuan for affordable housing re-loans is anticipated to leverage actual loan amounts of about 600 billion yuan, potentially acquiring approximately 4.891 million square meters of residential properties, which corresponds to about 5% of the national residential property inventory[1] - The total funding required for the "old-for-new" housing policy is estimated to be between 3.37 trillion and 4.72 trillion yuan, with local state-owned enterprises needing approximately 1.81 to 2.38 trillion yuan for acquiring unsold properties[1][2] Market Reactions - The equity market has shown significant responsiveness to the recent housing policy changes, with the real estate development and service sectors rising by 27.64% and 45.25% respectively from April 24 to May 17, outperforming the overall market increase of 5.91%[2] - The bond market has reacted more moderately, with the real estate bond index continuing its recovery trend, indicating potential for further improvement in the real estate debt market[2]