Haitong Securities·2024-05-26 07:01Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2] Core Views - The company reported a slight decrease in revenue of 0.03% year-on-year for Q1 2024, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 1.44% year-on-year. The non-performing loan ratio decreased quarter-on-quarter, and the core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio continued to improve, maintaining the "Outperform the Market" rating [7] - The bank's asset quality is improving, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.32%, down 1 basis point from the previous quarter, and a provision coverage ratio of 197.05%, up 1.84 percentage points [7] - Credit growth remains stable, with total assets increasing by 1.3% compared to the end of 2023, loans up by 3.1%, and deposits up by 1.5% [7] - The forecast for earnings per share (EPS) from 2024 to 2026 is 1.16, 1.20, and 1.25 yuan, with net profit growth rates of 0.95%, 3.10%, and 3.68% respectively. The reasonable value range is estimated to be between 7.73 and 7.85 yuan [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the annualized average return on assets and annualized weighted average return on equity were 0.71% and 10.79% respectively [7] - The bank's total revenue for 2024 is projected to be 256,796 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.86% [8] - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be 92,102 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.95% [8] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio decreased to 1.32%, and the provision coverage ratio increased to 197.05% [7] - The bank continues to monitor risk and enhance risk identification and measurement [7] Credit and Deposit Growth - Total assets increased by 1.3%, loans by 3.1%, and deposits by 1.5% in Q1 2024 [7] - The proportion of demand deposits rose to 34.41%, up 8 basis points from the previous quarter [7] Valuation Metrics - The estimated reasonable value based on the Dividend Discount Model (DDM) is 7.73 yuan, and based on the Price-to-Book (PB) model, it is 7.85 yuan [7] - The projected Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio for 2024 is between 6.66 and 6.77 times [7]