东方日升：异质结经济性优势提升，有望加速渗透

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expected relative stock price growth of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within 6 months [6] Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 35.327 billion yuan (+20%) and net profit attributable to parent company of 1.363 billion yuan (+46%) in 2023, with positive profitability in Q4 despite industry-wide losses [3] - HJT (Heterojunction) production lines are ramping up smoothly, with battery capacity exceeding 6GW, yield rate reaching 99.6%, and average efficiency of 26% [3] - HJT economic advantages are increasing due to rising silver prices, with low silver paste usage of less than 7mg/w compared to TOPCon's 10mg/w [3] - Energy storage business contributed 2 billion yuan in revenue in 2023, with plans to build 10GWh of energy storage system integration capacity [3] Financial Performance - 2024 Q1 revenue was 4.933 billion yuan (-27%), with a net loss of 280 million yuan (-190%) [3] - Forecasted net profit attributable to parent company for 2024-2026 is 1.108/1.879/2.260 billion yuan, with PE ratios of 14.77x/8.71x/7.24x respectively [3] - 2023 gross margin was 14.6%, expected to be 10.4% in 2024 and stabilize at 12.3% in 2025-2026 [5] - ROE was 9.0% in 2023, projected to increase to 11.1% by 2026 [5] Production Capacity - As of 2023, the company has battery and module capacities of 27GW and 35GW respectively, with 19GW of module shipments [3] - The Malaysia base contributed significantly to profits with 1.44GW of sales to the US [3] - HJT non-silicon costs are 0.22 yuan/w, with low silver paste costs of 5.3 cents/w and target material costs of 3 cents/w [3] Industry Trends - Silver price increases have driven HJT economic advantages, with COMEX silver futures rising 35% since February 2024 [3] - Major energy companies including Huaneng, Lvfa, CGN, and Datang have initiated separate HJT module tenders [3] - The company is advancing efficiency improvement processes including CVD uniformity, microcrystalline layer optimization, and advanced screen printing technology [3] Financial Projections - Forecasted revenue for 2024-2026 is 36.245/43.639/50.578 billion yuan, with growth rates of 2.6%/20.4%/15.9% [4] - EPS is projected to be 0.97/1.65/1.98 yuan for 2024-2026 [4] - EV/EBITDA ratios are expected to decrease from 5.73x in 2023 to 2.00x by 2026 [4]