有色金属行业周报：供应扰动加剧，锑价加速上涨

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony industries [11]. Core Views - The report highlights that inflation aligns with expectations, and the anticipation of interest rate cuts is rising, indicating significant upside potential for gold prices [11]. - Supply disruptions are intensifying, leading to a rapid increase in antimony prices, with a noted price rise of 14.60% [10]. - The copper market is experiencing tight supply due to TC (treatment charge) constraints, which is expected to keep copper prices strong [11]. - The aluminum sector shows a slight increase in downstream operating rates, supporting a positive outlook for aluminum prices [11]. - Tin supply is tightening, with a notable decrease in imported tin ore, which is expected to improve the supply-demand structure [8]. Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The non-ferrous metals sector (Shenwan) experienced a weekly decline of 2.75%, ranking lower among all Shenwan primary industries [21]. - Silver and other metal new materials showed positive growth, while lithium and tungsten faced significant declines [21][25]. Macroeconomic and Industry News - The one-year LPR remains at 3.45%, and the five-year LPR is stable at 3.95% [27]. - U.S. housing sales data for April showed a decline, with existing home sales at 4.14 million units, below expectations [27]. - The U.S. PMI data for May indicates economic expansion, with the composite PMI at 54.4, signaling growth in both manufacturing and services [27][30]. Precious Metals Market Key Data - The report notes that gold prices are expected to rise significantly due to inflation concerns and potential interest rate cuts [11]. Industrial Metals Data - Copper prices have shown volatility, with LME copper closing at $10,365 per ton, reflecting a slight decline [6]. - Aluminum prices have increased slightly, with domestic electrolytic aluminum priced at 20,800 RMB per ton [7]. - Tin prices are under pressure due to a significant drop in domestic tin ore imports, which fell by 55.44% in April [8]. Industry Ratings and Investment Strategies - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony industries, citing strong market fundamentals and supply constraints [11]. Key Recommended Stocks - The report lists several stocks with strong potential, including Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, and Zijin Mining, all rated as "Buy" [12].