Jinko Solar(SH:688223) Soochow Securities·2024-05-26 15:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is a leader in N-type solar modules, continuously improving its integrated and global layout. It has nearly 20 years of experience in the production of photovoltaic modules, cells, and wafers, establishing a vertically integrated capacity from ingot casting to module production. The company has a balanced global market presence and is actively responding to emerging market opportunities and overseas policies [2][10] - There is a significant differentiation in market profitability, with the company maintaining its top shipment ranking. In Q1 2024, the company shipped approximately 20GW of modules, a year-on-year increase of 51%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 23%. The average signed price was 1.1 RMB/W (excluding tax). The company expects to increase shipments by over 20% in Q2 2024, with total shipments projected to be between 100-110GW for the year [2][21] - The company is cautiously expanding its production capacity while continuously iterating its technology. By the end of 2023, the production capacities for wafers, cells, and modules were 85GW, 90GW, and 110GW, respectively. The company is maintaining a careful expansion strategy and has recently faced some production impacts due to a fire incident. The efficiency of TOPCon technology is expected to lead the industry, with projected improvements in the coming years [2][22] Summary by Sections Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report adjusts the company's profit forecasts for 2024-2025 downwards and introduces a new forecast for 2026, estimating net profits of 4.2 billion, 6 billion, and 8.6 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. This represents a year-on-year change of -44%, +44%, and +43%. The corresponding P/E ratios are projected to be 19, 13, and 9 times [2][23]