宏观研究报告：谈谈年后的股债商齐涨

Group 1: Market Performance - After the Spring Festival, the domestic stock market, bond market, and commodity market all experienced varying degrees of increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 8%[3] - The 10Y government bond yield decreased by 12 basis points, indicating a bullish sentiment in the bond market[3] - The CRB Index saw a 5% increase, reflecting positive trends in commodity prices[3] Group 2: Liquidity and Economic Conditions - The current environment is not characterized by extreme liquidity, as evidenced by the stable R007 rates and a significant decline in the year-on-year growth rates of narrow social financing and loans[13] - Global liquidity is still expanding, as indicated by the acceleration of global M2 growth, while domestic liquidity is facing blockages with substantial funds circulating within the banking system[13] - The disparity in liquidity between domestic and global markets suggests that asset trends may lack clear direction, with commodities expected to rise in a globally expanding liquidity environment[13] Group 3: Stock Market Dynamics - The A-share market appears to be preemptively betting on the resolution of liquidity blockages, with recent index increases driven by expectations of real estate policy easing[13] - If there is no incremental monetary supply, optimistic expectations may not materialize quickly, leading to a temporary risk-on sentiment in the market[14] - In the absence of strong market forces, fiscal policy remains a crucial stabilizing factor, particularly regarding real estate policies aimed at addressing local government debt risks[20]